Predicting negative Effects of Climate Change on Taiwan’s endemic Bumblebee Bombus formosellus

Abstract Introduction: Climate change is threatening biodiversity hotspots. Notably, alpine bumblebees, which are mostly associated with a cold ecological niche, face higher risk of extinction. Bombus formosellus one the bumblebees endemic to Taiwan. Aims/Methods: In this study, we use ensemble niche modeling for first time predict spatial and temporal dynamics habitats suitable B. under current future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 in 2070s). Results: This model identified that cool temperature low variation, specific range precipitation presence coniferous forest grasslands were key factors affecting distribution . Using various scenarios, discovered that, compared climatic conditions, predicted habitat area decreased regardless scenario was applied. particular, appeared be most significant, an loss nearly 87%, fragmentation landscape poor connection. Discussion: summary, our analyses indicate environments However, Taiwan’s warming more significant high mountains than plains. The trajectory may become increasingly unfavorable Consequently, species extinction future. Implications insect conservation: We many will disappear or fragmented Therefore, remaining patches have important refuges, protection measures these areas should strengthened.